Optimism Bias: Why We Believe Things Will Turn Out Better Than They Often Do

Optimism bias describes the human tendency to believe that we are less likely to experience negative events and more likely to experience positive outcomes compared to others. People assume they will avoid illness, financial trouble, or relationship conflict, even when objective risk is the same for everyone.

This bias is not entirely harmful. Positive expectations can increase motivation and support long-term resilience. However, unchecked optimism leads to poor planning, unrealistic deadlines, and underestimation of obstacles.

Optimism bias affects entrepreneurs, students, managers, and families. When projects take longer than expected, when budgets exceed estimates, or when risks were “unexpected,” optimism bias is often the culprit.

The remedy is structured pessimism: imagining the worst-case scenario—not to panic, but to plan. Balancing optimism with realistic assessment leads to better forecasts and sturdier decisions.