Outcome Bias: Why We Judge Decisions Only by Their Results

Outcome bias occurs when people evaluate the quality of a decision solely based on its outcome rather than the process used to make it. A risky decision that turns out well is judged as “smart,” while a well-reasoned decision that ends poorly is labeled “bad,” even if the individual had no control over the result.

This bias creates distorted evaluations in workplaces, leadership assessments, sports, and even personal relationships. It encourages people to reward luck and punish reasonable thinking simply because the final result was positive or negative.

Outcome bias discourages learning. When decisions are judged only by result, individuals fail to build good judgment habits and instead become reactive to short-term outcomes.

The best defense is process-based evaluation: asking whether the information available at the time justified the decision, independent of how events unfolded afterward.